I have seen this post around NFT Twitter. Tons of people are saying the NFT bull market is back !
Is it true, or are people just talking nonsense ? Let’s break it down
“Facts can be so misleading, where rumors, true or false, are often revealing” Christoph Waltz
In my opinion, it’s way too early to tell and here’s why
Since July, we had about 3 NFT Bull Runs. Each bull run started with:
- Huge amount of Crypto Punk Sales
- Reasonable ETH gas conditions
- ETH priced between $1.9K to $4K
- Relatively flat Altcoin Markets
As of today, NONE of these conditions are true.
Cryptopunk floors went from 130ETH to 85ETH (CryptoPunks: Punks for Sale)
ETH is near ATH
Gas fees on ETH network have been consistently high.
Right now it costs .04ETH to purchase a NFT on OpenSea ($185). This has hurt a lot of good projects.
Why ? Well because when a NFT project floor is below 1ETH or even below 0.1ETH, interested buyers are likely to wait and see to save on ETH gas fees.
If a NFT costs 0.05ETH, interested buyers do not want to pay a 80% premium (0.04ETH in gas). This is the reason why so many new projects are seeing low volume and sellers who want to exit will list below the floor prices.
Hence why so many projects floors have dropped.
Now let’s talk about whales… In the NFT whales circles NOTHING has been going on since the last week of October
Some are even selling NFT at losses to chase leverage moves in the Altcoin market.
Almost all NFT influencers have been talking about meme coins like
$GM $WAGMI $FREN $GN
Minds, money and attention are in the altcoin markets now.
If you pay attention to the Crypto Market, you know that BTC is currently at price discovery, is trading above April ATH. ETH been breaking ATH. If you remember the bullrun earlier this year, $DOGE ran first then the altcoin season started.
We just saw another dog coin run , $shib, and now things like $GM & $FRENS are pumping. The real alt season is just around the corner. When the actual Altcoin season is here, most whales, influencers, and rest of the market will be chasing these runs.
Because altcoins are more liquid. you have to buy a token and sell it, instantly at a loss or at a profit in the decentralized exchange or a centralized exchange. You can also trade options & use leverages to increase your gains.
Yeah but what about the spike in volume today ??? It’s definitely a sign right ???
Well yes & no.
When we look at this chart we can see that Axie Infinity seem to be the top NFT project today & blue chip NFT projects like BoredApeYC - Coolcatsnft - MutantApes -Doodles - CryptoadzNFT have seen a recovery in floor prices.
About BAYC, tons of Bored Apes on twitter been super bullish on Bored Apes. Especially recently with Jimmy Fallon becoming a bored Ape member.
But careful don’t just ape into BAYC cause they have had tons of volume spikes since September (plus let’s be honest, the floor price of this collection makes it just inaccessible for like 95% of us so there’s that…)
But my point is, just because some blue chips collection are mooning, doesn’t mean the rest of the market is going to follow. Even in the crypto bear markets, you will have projects that pump, it doesn’t mean the market is healthy.
But who knows… Maybe this bull run starts off with BAYC mooning, despite high ETH gas fees, Alt Season around the corner, and Crypto Punk floor prices 57% of all time high.
I’m still bullish on the NFT market of course, NFTs are here and they’re here to stay.
Is only going to get more competitive with major brands & billion-dollar companies like Disney, Facebook, Ubi Soft and EA coming into the space.
Now let’s talk ETH chart :
ETH/USD has been following the 2017 ETH/USD fractal pretty well. It’s been correlating from May 2021 to October 2021. Since October, ETH has been out-performing 2017 ETH/USD fractal. If history repeats itself, ETH today should see a correction if it follows 2017 market price action.
If not soon, then ETH will eventually correct at a certain point. Nothing goes up forever. ETH can correct 10% to 50% and we still have a bull market in sight.
Similar to the last two NFT bull run, ETH crashes first, market stabilizes and NFT first lead the recovery. Like what we saw in late July and late September.
Hope you had a good read boys !