My vision about Bitcoin and Satoshi Channel

Hello fellow DBL members.

You might have noticed that I don’t communicate so much about how I manage the Satoshi Channel. But in the last few days we sold a large amount of our crypto wallet. I think it wouldn’t be appropriate not to explain my analysis and motivations.

First of all let me tell you that it is my opinion, it is not shared by the whole crypto-barrack.

I think we are living a key period on Bitcoin for a few reasons. First of all just by looking at how Binance behaved in the beginning of the week. You may have noticed that for some mysterious reasons you could not sell your cryptos, but of course you could still buy some. This is a market manipulation. In my opinion Binance tried everything to avoid a flash-crash similar from the one that happened in March 2020.

For those of you who don’t know what happened back then, every single asset crashed at the same time. At this precise moment Bitcoin faced a huge problem. The crash triggered Short selling limit orders that made the price fall even more. The price could not stop falling and believe it or not, what saved Bitcoin from going to 0 was market manipulation from Bitmex (one of the biggest crypto exchange). They just disconnected their servers on purpose to save Bitcoin from crashing too much. So if Binance feared such a situation, it’s not a good signal.

Now let’s talk about technical analysis :

The pattern we broke down is called a rising wedge. It usually is a bearish pattern.

Now you can also notice a 4 month old bearish divergence on RSI (the purple curve at the bottom of my chart). Which is also a major bearish signal.

As you can see, the MA50 (the light blue curve) as supported the BTC price since the beginning of the bullrun. And for the first time since it reached 11 000$, BTC broke it down. Right now we have been underneath the MA50 since 6 days and we don’t seem to recover.

Okay now that you have seen this short analysis, let’s pay attention to the 2017 top on Bitcoin :

This is the former ATH in h4 scale. You should already be able to link it to my previous analysis.

The top had been found in a rising wedge with a bearish divergence on RSI. And every trader knows that a bearish divergence in Daily scale is way more important than in h4 scale.

Now I would really like to underline the fact that once this top had been found, it took ONE WHOLE FUCKING MONTH to find a lower low on Bitcoin (red circle). And during ONE WHOLE FUCKING MONTH there were signs that we could go up again, but, as a matter of fact, we didn’t. So I would not be surprised if Bitcoin would remain quite stable for a while, even a few months, playing with our nerves before crashing.

Let’s get to the conclusion.

I am not telling you that this is the end of the bull market. What I’m telling you is that if it was the end of the bull market, Bitcoin would behave exactly as it is right now. So please just don’t pm me saying “Lmao why are you selling, this is obviously just a correction xD” because you can’t be sure about it. When the price is falling during a bull market, there are statistically more chances that it’s just a correction. So these noobs are right 8 times out of 10, but some day we’ll go into bear market, they will keep buying and end up loosing everything. Of course I’m very flexible and ready to change my scenario if the market proves me wrong.

I think it’s particularly relevant to notice that humans are unable to change, unable to remind anything, they will continue to behave the same way at every cycle on cryptos. Keep in mind that most of them were not in the market one year ago, and will not be in the market one year from now.

Anyway I will come in the tomorrow’s live show to answer all the questions that could come to your mind. I’m also going to start teaching some of you to read the charts and do your own technical analysis. I’ve created a telegram channel in which I will tell you about it. I will also often send my technical analysis in this channel. Feel free to subscribe to it with this link → Telegram: Join Group Chat

Sincerely, Lorenzo-G2.

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I paid not to think about all this, for the moment you made me won 1000 euro so no reason not to continue to trust you, if people do not agree nothing obliges them to follow the signals .

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Thanks. This makes a lot of sense.

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Hello @Lorenzo-G2, thank you very much for your message.

As I am interested in speculation, it is always a pleasure to read your explanations.

That said, and as @Natanael_Yuurei_G2 said, we have full confidence in the Satoshi Channel staff.

See you tomorrow!

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Hi,

Thank you for your explanations. From the moment I put my money in the satoshi Channel O had taken 2 decisions:

  1. I’m ready to loose everything
  2. I play the game without discussing, no one know the future of the market so, I understand the trading is a matter of vision of the things then I let you apply yours during one year

I think the majority of the people took the same decisions (maybe I’m wrong) but we don’t express our views during difficult moment.

So I just let you know, I continue to trust and support you during one year (it’s the minimum to know a trader is a winner or loser) whatever the downs and the ups.

Be confident you have a lot of supporters even if you receive no message, and we are counting on you to make what you think is the best for our money.

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Thanks for your message Lorenzo. I don’t understand the graphics, but i enjoy to have your point of view. Like the DBL’s bros, i trust in your team, and we know if BTC down, it’s not your fault, you analyze the crypto market, you don’t make the crypto market.

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Thank you for the explanation and for sharing your point of view. It’s reassuring.

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As fo me, I don’t think we are at the end of bullrun for many reasons.

First of all, It is clear that if we don’t take a step back and analyse bitcoin in intradady, it is in really bad situation. But if you get back in past, we have seen the same red canddle exactly 6 months after the beggining of bullrun. We are currently in same situation. After that red canddle, BITCOIN continued his bullrun.

(picture: source 1). I think that the red candle of this month can be interpreted as the consequence of recent excesses related to the video of tiktok influencers with the SAFEMOON and DOGE. The gamblers had to pay

The very important support is between 41k and 44k$ (yellow zone on picture) as we can. In addition we have the EMA 200 (red thin line) in the same range of price. It can be interpreted as a zone of strong resistance, and i think that Bulls (people who think that bitcoin can go higher) are not about to abandon this area. We can also see that bitcoin’s price is following BB20 (Bollinger band 20) in it fall, so it is not an irrational movement.

Also has we can see on this picture, compared to other bullrun we are about halfway through.

(picture: source 2). Do you really think this bullrun will be different from the others? Maybe the actors will change but the psychology will ALWAYS remain the same.

Thank you for reading :slightly_smiling_face:.

Sources:

  1. https://twitter.com/SlashCoins/status/1386237064392421376
  2. https://twitter.com/therationalroot/status/1385342632755335173
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Both scenarios are possible, it ties in with my topic: https://www.forumdbl.com/t/will-bitcoin-touch-100k-in-2021/18709

The real danger is having too many certainties. Let’s not be afraid to doubt and let’s be flexible.

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Having certainties does not prevent you from thinking about the worst, that’s why my strategy takes into account this risk of being wrong.

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Very interesting topic.

@Lorenzo-G2 andd @JeanBenoit_G3 , thank you both for your pedagogical posts.

What is you view today, 13 days after @Lorenzo-G2 's post?

@Lorenzo-G2 , are you the only or main person managing the Satoshi channel? You’ve kept the signals in a very conservative way for the past weeks (hold hold hold…) and it has started moving again yesterday and today.

Does it mean the Bullrun is far from being over and we have at least a few months before us?

Note: I’m not skilled at trading to make my own opinion of all this, even after reading your outstanding posts. So please bear with me.

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Hi, thanks for your feedback ! It was not an easy exercice for me, so I’m glad if it helped you.

So far, the BTC has performed, in its entirety, as I expected. Of course, it was not accurate to the dollar.

However, it has bounced around the $44k-$45k area. As we can see Bitcoin is currenlty ranging beetwen 53k and 59k$.
If bitcoin were to break the range from below, we could be back in the $50k area and in the worst case the $46k area. If it goes lower in this case the continuation of the bullrun can be questioned very seriously.
In the opposite scenario if bitcoin breaks its range from above we could be propelled towards $63k very quickly and potentially make a new top. What scares me, if you can call it that, is the lack of volume. As we can see, they are decreasing day by day, which is a sign of a certain disinterest (I’ll talk about this below).

I think thats’ because most of liquidity is inside ETH and ALT. Bitcoin will rise again when people decide to take their profits out of ALTs and reinvest them in Bitcoin. As we can see below, the dominance of BTC is 45. It means that BTC represent 45% of all the crypto market. That’s very low and that often a sign of an altcoin season.

(Note that this graphic is in weekly)

The last time we that dominance it was the 27 december of 2017, 10 days after the bulrun’s top of 2018. Does it means that the end of bullrun ? I don’t know. But as for me i think no.

As far as I can see, the end of bullrun is no longer in question in the short to medium term. To conclude this, I base myself on the TOTAL2 (picture below), it is the total capitalization of the crypto market excluding bitcoin. Basically it is the capitalization of ALTS. If we base it on the bullrun of 2017, we are only at the very beginning of the movement, if we admit that the amplitude of this bullrun will be the same as the previous one.

(Note that this graphic is in logarithmic scale, otherwise it is impossible to see the 2017’s bullrun because of the amplitude of the movement between 2016 ans 2017)

See you next :smile:

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