Hello fellow DBL members.
You might have noticed that I don’t communicate so much about how I manage the Satoshi Channel. But in the last few days we sold a large amount of our crypto wallet. I think it wouldn’t be appropriate not to explain my analysis and motivations.
First of all let me tell you that it is my opinion, it is not shared by the whole crypto-barrack.
I think we are living a key period on Bitcoin for a few reasons. First of all just by looking at how Binance behaved in the beginning of the week. You may have noticed that for some mysterious reasons you could not sell your cryptos, but of course you could still buy some. This is a market manipulation. In my opinion Binance tried everything to avoid a flash-crash similar from the one that happened in March 2020.
For those of you who don’t know what happened back then, every single asset crashed at the same time. At this precise moment Bitcoin faced a huge problem. The crash triggered Short selling limit orders that made the price fall even more. The price could not stop falling and believe it or not, what saved Bitcoin from going to 0 was market manipulation from Bitmex (one of the biggest crypto exchange). They just disconnected their servers on purpose to save Bitcoin from crashing too much. So if Binance feared such a situation, it’s not a good signal.
Now let’s talk about technical analysis :
The pattern we broke down is called a rising wedge. It usually is a bearish pattern.
Now you can also notice a 4 month old bearish divergence on RSI (the purple curve at the bottom of my chart). Which is also a major bearish signal.
As you can see, the MA50 (the light blue curve) as supported the BTC price since the beginning of the bullrun. And for the first time since it reached 11 000$, BTC broke it down. Right now we have been underneath the MA50 since 6 days and we don’t seem to recover.
Okay now that you have seen this short analysis, let’s pay attention to the 2017 top on Bitcoin :
This is the former ATH in h4 scale. You should already be able to link it to my previous analysis.
The top had been found in a rising wedge with a bearish divergence on RSI. And every trader knows that a bearish divergence in Daily scale is way more important than in h4 scale.
Now I would really like to underline the fact that once this top had been found, it took ONE WHOLE FUCKING MONTH to find a lower low on Bitcoin (red circle). And during ONE WHOLE FUCKING MONTH there were signs that we could go up again, but, as a matter of fact, we didn’t. So I would not be surprised if Bitcoin would remain quite stable for a while, even a few months, playing with our nerves before crashing.
Let’s get to the conclusion.
I am not telling you that this is the end of the bull market. What I’m telling you is that if it was the end of the bull market, Bitcoin would behave exactly as it is right now. So please just don’t pm me saying “Lmao why are you selling, this is obviously just a correction xD” because you can’t be sure about it. When the price is falling during a bull market, there are statistically more chances that it’s just a correction. So these noobs are right 8 times out of 10, but some day we’ll go into bear market, they will keep buying and end up loosing everything. Of course I’m very flexible and ready to change my scenario if the market proves me wrong.
I think it’s particularly relevant to notice that humans are unable to change, unable to remind anything, they will continue to behave the same way at every cycle on cryptos. Keep in mind that most of them were not in the market one year ago, and will not be in the market one year from now.
Anyway I will come in the tomorrow’s live show to answer all the questions that could come to your mind. I’m also going to start teaching some of you to read the charts and do your own technical analysis. I’ve created a telegram channel in which I will tell you about it. I will also often send my technical analysis in this channel. Feel free to subscribe to it with this link → Telegram: Join Group Chat