BTC and I - THE journal & Analysis

Hello brothers and sisters (they are present anyway :eyes:), I hope you are all well.

I created this topic to share my analysis of Bitcoin with you. For me this is quite new I must admit (I usually do them alone). That’s why they have different objectives:

  1. Writing these analyses will allow me to take a step back on the market
  2. They will sharpen my pedagogy and force me to be clear, concise and accessible to everyone
  3. They will allow me to teach things to newcomers on the market.

The first analysis is coming soon, stay tuned. There will be a lot to talk about.

EDIT 1: I must point out that this is only my opinion and one of many analyses. Obviously the different existing analysis tools like Ichimoku, Fibonacci etc… will give analyses with more or less important standard deviations.

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Bitcoin is in a very complicated situation. After the flash crash that happened mai 19, it recover from 36k to 42k in one day. The objective was to close above 42k, this was the case but unfortunately the price did not manage to maintain itself on the 42k and was rejected towards 39k. An ascending triangle was gradually set up, unfortunately the pattern was broken at the bottom propelling the price from 41k to 37k.

In the short-medium term, it is clearly necessary to succeed in closing this week (close Monday, May 24 at 2am) above the 42k. Indeed this price has acted as a major support for some time, now become a resistance.

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Differents levels depending on the school. For you and Lorenzo the weekly closing level to maintain is 42k$. The Ichimoku believers want to hold the Kijun at 40k$. For the supporters of the EMA 21, it’s necessary to hold the 46k$. I am more in the EMA 21 team. So there will be still a doubt between 40k$ and 46k$ and less doubt under or above. It will be a very interesting closing!

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Yes of course I didn’t specify that it was only my analysis and not an evidence. I admit that I do not follow ichimoku so I was not aware of the different key levels according to them. A 6k hesitation zone is still not negligible in my opinion.

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Ascending double bottom created in H1. Very bullish pattern. Wait and see :eyes:

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Discovery of the morning, when we trace an extension of fibo on the last 2 movements we notice that the wick of May 23 has perfectly touched the 1.618 of fibo.

Unfortunately the pattern was not validated and a new low was formed (the blue line). A new short term bullish trend is developing. We now have to wait for the price reaction around the 38.5k (yellow line bellow).

On the medium-long term in order to preserve this bullrun, I think it is now vital to maintain the $30k resistance. Otherwise the next support areas (off news) $24k and the fateful $20k.

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Come on, we’re all behind you! :grimacing:

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Yes I agree with JeanBenoit on this one :slight_smile:

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Bitcoin is in a much better situation than it was a few days ago, even if nothing is won yet. In H1 time unit we are seeing higher and higher lows as well as higher and higher highs. This is a sign of a short term trend change. We will have to watch this in the coming days. However, the price has not yet reached the 42k price, which I believe is a price for the medium term future of bitcoin.

The dead cat bounce scenario is not yet ruled out. On a daily basis, bitcoin is in a price range between 42k and 34k (the two yellow line). The challenge in the following days/weeks is to break out of this range and move upwards if we want a recovery. A downward break would signal a return to the 30k support.

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Bitcoin is currently contained in a triangle. It breaked the 35k resistance (yellow line) I drawed in the last post.

In daily i have reajusted the lower resistance to 33.7k$.

The montly ending is monday at 2PM for french’s people.

Nothing more to say :grinning_face_with_smiling_eyes:

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Monthly ending tonight at 2AM. I am rather disappointed with this closing, even if it was predictable that we would not go back above $41k (the red line). I was expecting us to continue the upward trend we started 2 days ago.

According to Ichimoku, we still managed to close above the Tenkan and kinjun, which allows us to save this month.

To explain a little bit more why i expected a ending above the 41k$ and where this figure comes from. This red line is the 0,382 level of fibonacci. When you draw a fibo from the bottom of this cycle, 3173$, to the actual top, 65091$, it gives 41334$. This is a key leve because when we do the same approach on other cycle, it was also a key level. Of course, past things do not predict the future, but the more a thing has been repeated in the past, the more likely it is to happen in the future (statistical questions :slight_smile: ).

However in H4 nothing is loose. We are still in a compression triangle. This implies a compression and therefore a reduction in volatility. Reduction of volatility = pressure cooker.We have to hanNow it has to explode in the direction we want, i.e. upwards.

If not, we could come back to look for the $30k area. This is a strategic area for buyers who should react in their direction.

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The Wyckoff pattern was efficient for the distribution phase (sell). It exists also for the accumulation phase (buy). If we look at the graph in H1, it’s not impossible that bitcoin is in the phase C or starting the phase D. To watch out closely…

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Wow the resemblance is quite uncanny. I’ll definitely keep an eye on it!

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Bitcoin finally broke the asymmetric triangle, in which it had been fluctuating from now 2 weeks, from above. Thta’s a great news, i’m now waiting him at 41k. If it manages to get back above it, it would give a positive sign to the market for the next few weeks. On the other hand, if it fails to break out of the 41k area, a return to the bottom of the range at the $33k level is probably in store.

In H1, we can see that the price has come back looking for the upper resistance of the triangle and has bounced. This means that the sellers are in.

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It was a fake breakout (thanks to elon ??). I have reajusted the triangle !

It has bounced on the lower resistance line, good sign for now.

As stated above bitcoin was indeed in a symmetrical triangle. However, I didn’t know something at the time I wrote this. A triangle like this is a continuation of a trend. That is, in our case the pattern was supposed to break from below. This is what was done last night around 10pm and confirmed throughout the night.

The price seems to have found buyers at the $32k level, but this is still very weak. The target for the next few days is a move down to the support at $30k. After that there is no support until the $20k level.

PS: For those who use tradingview I have written an indicator that averages the volumes of the 6 largest crypto exchangers. It only works for bitcoin, but it gives a better view on the real volumes.

Indicator's code
study("Multiple Bitcoin Volume", overlay=false)

v1 = security("BITFINEX:BTCUSD", period, volume)
v2 = security("BITSTAMP:BTCUSD", period, volume)
v3 = security("COINBASE:BTCUSD", period, volume)
v4 = security("FTX:BTCUSDT", period, volume)
v5 = security("BITTREX:BTCUSDT", period, volume)
v6 = security("BINANCE:BTCUSDT", period, volume)

v = avg(v1,v2,v3,v4,v5,v6)

b_color=(open > close ? #B03838 : #008060)

plot(v, style=columns, color=b_color , linewidth=1)
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BTC just came back in the triangle that it broke yesterday !
Chart un 15 minutes:

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Bitcoin is now back in his triangle. I reajust the triangle.

Nothing more

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This scenario is still valid (bullish) :

Unless it draws another triangle, a descending one (bearish).

At this uncertain stage, it’s better to wait for a clear direction before taking a big position.

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Yes exactly it’s completly unpredictable ! Thanks for the addition. I can also draw a channel like that:

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